Which project will boost Kazakhstan's oil production in 2024-25?

Tengiz: Future Growth Project is main source of Kazakhstan’s incremental oil production during 2024-25. Kashagan: Phase 2 development is likely to lift project output through 2030s, cushioning overall national production decline trajectory.

Is the Kazakhstan-China pipeline a good option for Kazakh oil exports?

The Kazakhstan-China Pipeline (KCP) was main non-Russian route for Kazakh oil exports in 2022. – KCP remains substantially underutilized, as it tends to yield relatively unattractive netbacks given fixed China border price at discount to an international benchmark and provides access to one market (and buyer).

Will Kazakhstan achieve its INDC conditional emissions target by 2030?

Given its current trajectory, Kazakhstan may not achieve its INDC conditional emissions target by 2030; national GHG emissions may even drift upwards in early 2020s with further economic recovery and higher energy consumption; a more concerted effort is needed to reverse this.

Why is diesel a major product in Kazakhstan?

Diesel is the single largest component (product) in Kazakhstan’s refinery slate and in its domestic consumption balance; widely consumed within Kazakhstan, diesel is used across many economic sectors, while transportation (trucking) is the single largest consumer. Kazakhstan remained a (small) net importer of diesel each year during 2016-22.

Should Kazakhstan adopt an energy security strategy?

Global trend of tightening carbon regulation presents yet another impetus for broader modernization and systemic reforms of energy sector in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan should articulate and adopt an official Energy Security Strategy document, guided by these general observations.

Is Kazakh ready to transition to market-based refined product prices?

Kazakh authorities remain officially committed to a gradual transition to market-based refined product prices, in keeping with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) goal of launching a common market in oil and refined products in 2025 (e.g. raising the ceiling on gasoline and diesel prices).